The Forum for Competitiveness believes that the Government’s forecast of 2% growth can still be achieved, but estimates that GDP will grow 1.9%, according to a situation note released this Wednesday, 5th.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) accelerated more than expected in the third quarter, from 1.8% to 2.4%, notes the Forum for Competitiveness, with “the positive contribution from domestic demand remaining close to that observed in the previous quarter, while the negative contribution from net external demand was less pronounced”.
In this scenario and taking into account the indicators already available for the last few months, “it is possible that there was some slowdown in activity at the beginning of the 4th quarter, but not very significant, and it is necessary to wait for more signs and indicators to confirm this possible trend”.
Thus, the Forum considers that “it is more likely that the average annual GDP growth for 2025 will end up being fixed at 1.9%, but the value of 2.0%, as stated in the State Budget for 2026, could still be achieved”.
Among the institutions that follow the Portuguese economy, the Government is the most optimistic in its forecasts for this year’s growth.
On the other hand, “there is unanimity among the different institutions that growth in 2026 will be slightly better than that recorded in 2025”, notes the Forum for Competitiveness.
In the macroeconomic scenario, the PSD/CDS-PP Government predicts that the Gross Domestic Product will grow 2% this year and 2.3% in 2026.