Global wealth will reach an unprecedented 600 billion dollars in 2025, reveals a study by the McKinsey Global Institute. This growth, however, is accompanied by significant concerns, since for every dollar invested, two dollars of debt were generated, creating an imbalance that could negatively impact future growth.
In the Portuguese case, McKinsey highlights that the country has the opportunity to double its GDP by 2040, as long as it invests in increasing productivity. To achieve this, it is essential to reinforce investment in traditional industries and accelerate electrification and artificial intelligence.
The consultant points out that, “in this way, the country will be able to reverse the anemic growth of recent decades and return to convergence with the European average”.
This focus on productivity in Portugal is relevant within a global context where the increase in wealth has been largely driven by the appreciation of financial assets, financed by an uncontrolled growth in debt.
“Much of this growth [da riqueza desde 2000] it came from rising asset prices, financed by a proliferation of debt rather than new savings and investments,” explains McKinsey.
While the world created almost $4 of new wealth for every dollar of new investment, $1.90 of new debt was also generated, putting pressure on long-term growth.
As the analysis expands to the global context, McKinsey warns that high levels of debt can lead to financial crises, reducing the consumption and investment capacity of families, governments and companies.
“When families, governments or companies need to make large debt repayments, this means less money available for consumption and investment”, points out the study.
To resolve this imbalance, it is essential that countries, including Portugal, invest in productivity, thus allowing for improved financial health and sustainable economic growth.
Furthermore, the study highlights that, between 2000 and 2024, households accumulated 400 billion dollars in wealth, but 36% of these gains were only on paper, disconnected from the real economy.
“Overall cumulative inflation, which maintains real wealth values, added about 40%,” explains McKinsey, indicating that less than 30% of the gains reflect effective investment in the economy.
This global panorama highlights the importance of Portugal not only following trends, but also implementing strategies that promote robust growth.
Finally, the consultant concludes with a warning about the risks that the current low growth trajectory presents for Europe and the need for structural changes in China.
“The best outcome, by far, would be an acceleration of productivity, allowing countries to achieve healthy balance sheets through economic growth,” concludes McKinsey.